Is Solar Still Worth It in the North Bay Without the Federal Tax Credit?

Solar can still make sense for many North Bay homes, but it takes longer to pay for itself than it did in 2025. The 30 percent federal tax credit for homeowner-owned systems ended for systems installed after December 31, 2025, and California's billing rules pay less for the solar power you send to the grid than you pay for the power you buy. What remains is the value of using your own solar power at home, often with a battery.

PG&E calls California's current solar billing rules the Solar Billing Plan. You may also see them called NEM 3.0 or the Net Billing Tariff, the official name. This article uses Solar Billing Plan.

North Bay homes have three things in their favor. Summers are long and dry, so solar production is strong for most of the year. Power outages from shutoffs and winter storms make a battery more useful here than in many places. And homes moving from gas to electric heating and hot water use more electricity, which is what solar offsets.

What Changed for Solar After 2025?

For a homeowner buying a system, the first row matters most. The rest are context.

The IRS explains the end of the homeowner credit on its Residential Clean Energy Credit page. A qualifying system installed in 2025 is claimed for the 2025 tax year. The credit is nonrefundable, and the IRS says any unused amount carries forward to reduce tax in future years, so a 2025 credit can still lower your 2026 tax. A homeowner-owned system installed in 2026 or later earns no new credit.

The property tax change matters for anyone installing now. California's exclusion kept new solar from raising a home's assessed value. The State Board of Equalization's September 2026 letter to county assessors confirms the exclusion becomes inoperative on January 1, 2027, and that systems already excluded stay excluded until the property changes ownership. Its 2024 guidance explains how construction in progress around the deadline is treated, so a project already under way may be assessed differently. As of October 2026, no extension had been enacted. Your county assessor decides how a new system is assessed.

Tax and program details checked October 20, 2026. Talk with a tax professional about your own situation.

How Does the Solar Billing Plan Work?

The Solar Billing Plan applies to PG&E solar customers who applied to connect on or after April 15, 2023. Three features shape a system's value under it:

1. Exports earn less than imports cost. Power you send to the grid earns a credit based on its estimated value to the grid at that hour. Those credits are lower than the price you pay for power from the grid at most times of day.
2. Timing matters. Export credits vary by hour and by month, and the power you buy is priced by time of use. PG&E says Solar Billing Plan customers are automatically enrolled in its Electric Home rate plan, where the peak price window runs from 4 to 9 p.m.
3. Self-use is worth the most. Every kilowatt-hour your home uses directly from your panels, or stores and uses later, avoids buying power at the retail price.

The CPUC's page on the Net Billing Tariff states that the change did not affect customers who submitted a net metering application by April 14, 2023.

If your electricity comes from Sonoma Clean Power or MCE, which supply electricity to many homes in Sonoma, Marin and Napa County, they set the credit for the generation portion of your exports, while PG&E delivers the power. Sonoma Clean Power describes its version on its Solar Billing Plan page, and MCE publishes its own terms. Ask any installer to model your savings with your actual provider.

Rate and billing details checked October 19, 2026.

How Much Does a North Bay Solar System Produce?

A kilowatt (kW) is a measure of a solar system's size. A kilowatt-hour (kWh) is the energy it produces over time. The National Laboratory of the Rockies (formerly NREL) estimates that each kilowatt of south-facing panels in Santa Rosa produces about 1,524 kWh a year: about 176 kWh in July and about 74 kWh in December. That is about 5.7 kWh a day per kilowatt in July, and about 2.4 a day in December.

A system sized to cover your annual usage will produce more than you use in summer and less than you use in winter. The four months from November through February produce about 22 percent of the year's output. That matters if your electricity use peaks in winter, which is likely if you heat with a heat pump.

Your own roof may differ from the model. Shade from trees, a roof facing east or west, and coastal fog in parts of Marin and southern Sonoma all reduce output. You can model your address with the free PVWatts calculator, and any installer's production estimate should account for shading on your roof.

How Does Electrification Change the Case for Solar?

Electrification means replacing gas equipment, such as a furnace or water heater, with electric equipment. Solar delivers the most value when your home uses electricity during the day, and three kinds of equipment add daytime use:

• A heat pump for heating and cooling, which can pre-heat or pre-cool during sunny hours. Our comparison of heat pumps and furnaces covers that decision.
• A heat pump water heater, which can be scheduled to heat water midday.
• An electric vehicle, charged during the day when the car is home.

Each of these adds load to your electrical panel. Planning solar, a battery and new electric equipment together can avoid paying for a panel upgrade twice. Our guide to panel upgrades for solar and EVs and our whole-home electrification guide cover how the pieces fit.

On older North Bay houses, solar usually runs into the electrical panel before it runs into the roof. Interconnection, panel capacity and the main breaker rating are where most residential solar projects stall. On the systems we design, we check whether the panel can accept the array before the design starts, which keeps the quote accurate.

How Does a Battery Change the Value of Solar?

A battery changes when you use your solar power. Instead of exporting midday production for a lower credit, the battery stores it and your home uses it in the evening, when grid power is priced highest. Under the Solar Billing Plan, that shift is where much of the value comes from.

A battery can also provide backup power, if the system is configured for it. Standard grid-tied solar panels without a battery shut down during an outage, so they cannot power your home during a Public Safety Power Shutoff or a storm outage. A battery set up for backup keeps selected circuits running, such as the refrigerator, lights, internet and a well pump, for as long as its charge lasts. Ask the installer which circuits it would back up and for how long. Our PG&E power shutoff checklist covers outage planning, our article on solar panels with battery backup covers battery systems, and our guide to whole-house surge protectors covers protecting a solar inverter.

California's Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) offers incentives for home batteries. SGIP sets aside funding it calls the Equity Resiliency budget. It is for customers in high fire-threat areas or customers who have had two or more shutoffs, and they must also meet another qualifier, such as income, Medical Baseline enrollment or reliance on a well pump. In October 2026 the residential steps for PG&E customers, including Equity Resiliency, were closed or waitlisted, so check the program's step tracker before planning around it.

SGIP status checked October 19, 2026.

How Long Does Solar Take to Pay for Itself Now?

Payback is the net cost of the system divided by the yearly savings on your electric bill. Without the 30 percent federal credit, the net cost is higher, so payback takes longer than it did in 2025. Two factors raise the yearly savings, which shortens payback:

• Higher electricity use, especially daytime use from a heat pump, heat pump water heater or EV.
• A sunny, unshaded roof facing south or west.

Two others are often listed but work differently:

• A battery adds cost as well as savings. It lets you use more of your own production in the evening peak, but whether it shortens payback depends on its price, any incentive, the energy lost in storing power, and how it is run. Its backup value does not show up in a payback number at all.
• Staying in the home does not change the payback period. It decides whether you are still there to collect the savings once the system has paid for itself.

Ask any installer for two estimates built from the same 12 months of usage, your provider's rates and the Solar Billing Plan: solar alone, and solar with a battery. Compare the net installed cost, yearly savings, payback, backup capability, and the cost of replacing parts such as the inverter or battery later.

How Can You Tell If Solar Makes Sense for Your Home?

Solar panels typically last 20 to 30 years, according to InterNACHI's life expectancy chart, so the roof under them should be ready for that long too.

Should You Buy, Lease or Wait?

For a lease or power purchase agreement, ask the provider how the tax credit affects your price and what happens if the system misses the in-service deadline. The deadlines come from the federal budget law signed in July 2025, and the IRS explains how they apply in Notice 2025-42. They are not the only conditions the system owner has to meet, so ask the provider to confirm the credit in writing.

What Should You Ask a Solar Installer?

1. What is the production estimate for my roof, and how was shading accounted for?
2. What are the estimated savings under the Solar Billing Plan and my provider's rates, using my last 12 months of usage?
3. Would a battery improve the savings, and which circuits would it back up?
4. Does my electrical panel need an upgrade, and is that in the price?
5. How will the system affect my property taxes, now that the state exclusion no longer covers new systems?
6. How are roof penetrations sealed, and what do the roof and system warranties cover?
7. Who handles permits and PG&E interconnection, and how long does approval take?

Where to Start on a Solar Decision

Pull your last 12 months of PG&E usage from your online account, note the age of your roof, and look at your electrical panel's main breaker size. With those three things, a solar estimate can be built from your home rather than from averages, and you have a baseline to check any installer's numbers against.

Ongaro & Sons is a family-owned company based in Petaluma, serving Marin, Sonoma, and Napa County since 1932, licensed C-10 electrical, C-20 HVAC and C-36 plumbing. Because we install solar alongside electrical, heating and plumbing work, we can look at solar, a panel upgrade and a heat pump together. Our solar page covers the systems we install, and we work across Marin County, Sonoma County and Napa County, including Santa Rosa, Petaluma, Napa, San Rafael and Novato.